In a recent article on ESPN.com, on Federer's latest Wimbledon conquest, the first sentence is:
If we extrapolate Nadal's current performance into his 34 years, i.e., for 8 more years, he is likely to have won 8*4*0.367, or 11 more or a total of 22, tournaments. Thus, he might be able to meet 20 Grand Slam wins too. However, given his playing style of utilizing more energy than, say, a more fluid game would use, it is unclear that Nadal will play into his 34 years.
If we extrapolate Djokovic's current performance into his 34 years, i.e., for 9 more years, he is likely to have won 9*4*0.263, or 9 more, tournaments. Thus, he might be able to meet 14 Grand Slam wins, equaling Sampras' record.
Of course, it remains to be seen how the future will unfold.
"No. 7, No. 17, No. 1."Gets you thinking on how well he has done from other points of view. I have given here a simple exercise of determining how well some of these players have done since their 1st Grand Slam win, and how well they may perform in the future. (1st Grand Slam win identifies, in a way, a certain maturity needed for such wins).
Today
I have chosen today's top three Grand Slam winners — namely Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic —, and have added Pete Sampras to this mix.| Player | First Grand Slam Win | Last Grand Slam (i.e., Retirement) | Tournaments the Player [could have] Played through now (or Retirement) | Grand Slam Wins | % Success |
| Roger Federer | Wimbledon 2003 | N/A | 2 + 32 + 3 = 37 | 17 | 17/37 = 0.459 |
| Pete Sampras | US 1990 | US 2002 | 1 + 48 = 49 | 14 | 14/49 = 0.286 |
| Rafael Nadal | French 2005 | N/A | 3 + 24 + 3 = 30 | 11 | 11/30 = 0.367 |
| Novak Djokovic | Australian 2008 | N/A | 4 + 12 + 3 = 19 | 5 | 5/19 = 0.263 |
Tomorrow
The foregoing table seems to suggest that, if Federer competes for 3 more years, for approximately as many tournaments as Sampras did, there is a good chance that he will win 3*4*0.459, or 5 more, tournaments. Federer will be 34 years old in 2015. In other words, it may be reasonable to expect that his tally of Grand Slam wins will equal 20, i.e., only 3 more and not 5 more, when he retires.If we extrapolate Nadal's current performance into his 34 years, i.e., for 8 more years, he is likely to have won 8*4*0.367, or 11 more or a total of 22, tournaments. Thus, he might be able to meet 20 Grand Slam wins too. However, given his playing style of utilizing more energy than, say, a more fluid game would use, it is unclear that Nadal will play into his 34 years.
If we extrapolate Djokovic's current performance into his 34 years, i.e., for 9 more years, he is likely to have won 9*4*0.263, or 9 more, tournaments. Thus, he might be able to meet 14 Grand Slam wins, equaling Sampras' record.
Of course, it remains to be seen how the future will unfold.
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