The World is Getting Flatter

Today, I came across a new service that Google has introduced. Free. Google 411. Yes, a directory service that is free (and only costs what you have already paid for the telephone company). I tried it out and it works! Granted it has some constraints for now ... but that will be easily remedied, given that Google has a large army of talented software engineers.

Tom Friedman has earned himself a place in the history books by writing the book The World is Flat. The implication of Google 411 is enormous. Anyone in the world can find out, for a relative pittance, this kind of local information. Even though most of this information is already available through Google Local and such, the simplicity of the man-machine interface of the telephone service is what will make this usable by many more.

If someone - Larry Page or Sergey Brin or, even, Eric Schmidt- were to take the trouble to describe in a book how they have built Google so far, that will be immensely valuable to entrepreneurs!

Cisco and WebEx - Part II

What Cisco has bought, by spending $3.2B, is a powerful operating network that can be enhanced endlessly by adding more value to the users of the network.

WebEx calls their network MediaTone Network and has been successfully using it to conduct real-time collaboration for their subscribers. (I have been a participant on several such collaboration sessions although I have used only solutions where audio was networked through a 800-number network rather than over the IP network). MediaTone Network is accessed over the Internet; however, once on the MediaTone Network, the collaboration information traverses primarily the MediaTone Network except, of course, the first and the last miles.

Now, just imagine any new kind of software as a service (SaaS); this powerful private network need only be programmed with additional applications to provide this new service; if necessary, of course, you can throw more hardware at the problem. And, if you take a look a the WebEx financials, you'll find that their gross margins are significantly higher than the 65% we are accustomed to from Cisco. This is a win-win situation for both Cisco and WebEx. (Actually, it has already been a win for WebEx in their recent stock price). I wish that this merger goes through. (I own some shares of Cisco).

Cisco and WebEx

This morning's announcement that Cisco has agreed to acquire WebEx makes it a bit clearer as to the direction Cisco is taking for its evolution. Web-based online meetings are what WebEx has been serving up to its customers, mainly small & medium businesses (SMBs), and this acquisition has a potential to turn small businesses completely online. The advent of Google Apps is but a modest start, also in that direction. And, Microsoft Live has been online for quite some time now.

Makes you also wonder about the kind of value-added applications that would succeed 20-25 years from now.

Happy New Year, 2006!

People have highly individual approaches to making new year resolutions. Even Uncle Sam wants to help, and does so by providing statistics on the kind of resolutions people make. I would like to wish you with something different this year.

Through my alumni connection, I found an extremely interesting book, displayed at left, titled 'How to be a Star at Work', that was recommended to me by one of the alumni of the Indian Institute of Science, Prof. A. K. Rao, when we met in November 2005. This book is a result of Prof. Robert Kelley's research into why only a handful of scientists and engineers go on to become stars.

The author emphasizes people networking as the most significant trait that distinguishes stars from non-stars. Note in an anecdote that he contrasts the work approach, and the effectiveness of individual knowledge networks, of two otherwise equally well-endowed individuals, Katy and Rob. "Katy and Rob are an even match for the 60 percent of knowledge from their own brainpower, but Rob's network is no match for Katy's when it comes to closing the 40 percent knowledge deficit they face on their new assignment." In conclusion of that same chapter, he states, "Without [knowledge] networks, the stars know, they are on their own. And to be on your own in this mind-boggling knowledge economy is to be lost."

Deciding to improve networking, as described in this book, is a worthwhile new year resolution for everyone in general, and professionals in particular. I wish you a very happy new year in cultivating your professional network.

Hiring in Information Technology

In an article titled Gartner: IT hiring on the rise again, a certain optimism is described regarding hiring of IT talent in particular in the financial industry. Is it time to rejoice? Has globalization worked itself through?

Squanderville and Thriftville, 2005.

A recent news item is an attempt by a Chinese [state] corporation to buy Unocal, beating out the bid by the American company, Chevron. And, there is a newer news item today that says that Chevron may be prepared to outbid the Chinese corporation, CNOOC.
The immediate thought that comes to mind is Warren Buffett's fable on Squanderville and Thriftville.

Is America becoming the Squanderville that Buffett described so beautifully?

Cisco, Juniper & Next Generation Networks

In an April 2005 article titled Cisco and Juniper Joust for Supremacy, noted industry consultant Tom Nolle compares and contrasts Juniper's and Cisco's approach.

From a layered perspective, both schemes appear to have the same decomposition: 3 layers in both prescriptions. The devil, of course, is in the details.

Juniper's Infranet:
A quick summary of the Infranet approach, available on the Infranet web site, describes it in 3 layers: signaling stratum, control stratum and data stratum.

Cisco's NGN:
Cisco describes its solution in terms of application convergence, service convergence and network convergence.

Apart from the innocuous equivalence of the 3 layers in either approach, a fundamental difference between the two approaches seems to be in the use of basic IP connectivity to accomplish future services off the "new Internet", be it Cisco's NGN or Juniper's Infranet. Before any kind of a new service can be provided to a subscriber, basic IP connectivity must be present. (The entire world has now gotten used to the ubiquitous nature of IP connectivity; you are too late if you are thinking differently). Thus, it seems that Cisco's idea is superior, particularly if the new ISP will only provide new services in a "container" that a subscriber has specifically requested through a secure request.

Outsourcing Innovation

The story this blog entry's title's hyperlink is, I believe, the effect of the Internet as a great equalizer. The summary of the article is ably given by one of the last sentences of the article (The print version of the article has greater pictorial content that illustrates that 70% of PDA designs are outsourced, but the design outsourcing of networking equipment is only starting):

"What is clear is that an army of in-house engineers no longer means a company can control its fate. Instead, the winners will be those most adept at marshaling the creativity and skills of workers around the world."

What all of this means is that equality of opportunity, and commensurate (re)distribution of wealth, is taking place across the globe. The purpose of many of the economic systems of the present and past is, in a sense, exactly that: How to produce a society where prosperity is somehow "equally" distributed? But, now, the desirable transformation is taking place, slowly.

Vive l'Internet!

Globalization & Equalization of Culture

When the Internet hit the marketplace in a big way in the 1990s, it was lauded with many different adjectives. John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems said, as PCWorld reported in 1999, that the Net will be a great equalizer, an "equalizer between people, companies, and countries."

Today in the San Jose Mercury News, there is a story of an engineer who moved his family to Bangalore, India for a couple of years. (You need a subscription that is free, to access the article on the web). What is interesting about this is that the engineer is an American who chose to live in Bangalore for a couple of years just so that the offshored work would get done effectively. In the process, his entire family moved with him as well, and their presence in Bangalore is a great equalizer of culture.

I recall, before I came to the United States from Bangalore years ago, that my folks in Bangalore were very apprehensive of how I would fare in far away America, who would keep an eye on me, etc. This engineer's presence in Bangalore would be but a step in removing such apprehensions.

There have been any number of stories written up on the loss of American jobs, and something definitely has to be done about that. But the cultural aspect of this story is what is valuable. It is this sort of cross migration that will firmly establish the vedic saying वसुदैव कुटुम्बकम - The whole world is one family - in this world where no day goes by without some sort of violence, terrorism, etc.

The Pleasure of an Alumni Meet

The pleasure in getting together with your past alumni friends is unbelieveable! I had such an experience today at the IISc Alumni Silicon Valley meet in Milpitas, California. (The group operates a Yahoo group web site).

1. A highly nostalgic account of some life as an IISc student was recalled by Prof. A. K. Rao. (He was on the IISc faculty subsequent to his graduation).
2. Dr. N. Balakrishnan of Supercomputer Education and Research Centre (SERC) joined us on the telephone even though it was about 2:15 AM for him! This 20- to 30-minute interaction brought emotional tears in me. You see, unless you think in terms of monetizing any powerful idea, you lost the ability to promote even greater amount of monetizable ideas.
   
3. A rather eye-opening account of volunteering by Dinesh Thirumurthy and his wife immediately after the Tsunami disaster hit the communities in the Indian Ocean in December 2004 was presented. His account was useful in that it made it a little clearer that nearly anyone can provide help of that sort.
4. After lunch, we had a nice presentation of the Tabla by a local maestro Ravi Gutala. (Not that it matters, he is not an alumnus of IISc. He is a close friend and teacher of Murthy Gudipati, a prime mover in the alumni association).

Moral: Don't miss an alumni meet if you can afford to attend it.

Chinese and Indians are Buying.

Many people may not realize the level of globalization that is occurring in the world today. For a perspective of several CEOs from the G7 countries, click here. Basically, the economic growth happening in China and India will, in addition to providing powerful markets for western products, produce economic giants that will dot the global landscape by, for example, making acquisitions of western businesses.

What does this development mean to individual investors? Load up on select Chinese and Indian company stocks.

Google Valuations

It is an interesting exercise for anyone in the industry these days to try to analyze Google evaluation. Today, an interesting article by Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch has one such view. His analysis makes some assumptions on reasonable 5-year return and the P/E ratio that would be necessary in February 2010 to sustain it. For a 20% annualized return and a P/E ratio of 50, his model requires annualized growth rate in earnings. If you read the article, you probably would not want to run out and buy Google stock!

And, of course, there have been others - including myself - that argued that $85 itself was a little high valuation for the stock in August 2004. (See also John Battelle's blog).

On the other hand, Google seems to have created an effective distributed computing technological base that can be monetized in various ways. As a result, it is very conceivable that Google will derive a $20B revenue in 2010 that, for a short term at least, can sustain a valuation of $500B, equivalent to a $1800 stock! Recall that Cisco enjoyed such a valuation for a brief period in 2000. And, Cisco is not a software-only company that can produce outrageous profit margins.

I guess we all will have to wait patiently for the next 5 years to see the truth of these analyses.